Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
