Pitches, Balls and Reserves – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|