Will the Scottish team finally end their New Zealand curse?

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.